Sunday, January 13, 2013

What Is Success To You?

I've no idea what is going to be in this post, but I have this sudden urge to write and pen out the river of thoughts streaming in my mind. So, I was watching some YouTube videos and somehow it got me thinking about life and purpose. Maybe I should start by sharing some YouTube channels which I frequent.
These people did not start off as pop stars, they were simply people who enjoyed music. I've seen how much the quality of their videos and music have improved over the years. There is something about watching people do what they love. Passion and joy seeps out of them, it infects any beholder and touches the soul. It is hard to put into words something that is non tangible and to a certain extent, spiritual. These people do not stay still, they constantly work at their craft, they do not set limits, they continually exceed themselves.

Needless to say there is a parallel to be drawn with our trading, but I will not go there. Instead, I want to raise the timeless question "What is success to you?" All of us will have different answers when confronted with that question, and our response to it will define the way we lead our lives. Is it wealth and status? Is it family harmony? Is it about doing something you like? Is it about helping others?

The thing is, very often we start down one path but get sucked into the distractions of this world and end up on another. For example, a man may be family oriented and is contented with family harmony. However due to the tainted beliefs of the society, he is led into believing that family harmony is only possible with wealth. He stumbles down the road of corruption and immorality in order to achieve that means, ironically destroying his family in the process. How about the girl who loves music and defines success as being able to produce and share her music with the world? She starts off full of zeal, but after numerous setbacks and rejections decides that it is hard to make a living as a musician. She dumps her dream and settles for a dull office job, as a result being plagued by regret and lethargy every single day of her life.

"What is success to you?" When you're able to answer that question, do not forget the answer, come what may. Do not let the world stop you, do not let disappointments and failures stop you, do not ever lose your focus. Is wealth and status really what you desire, or is it just the means to something? What then when you've made more money than you could ever spend? I've given it much thought and I know why I want to be rich. Wealth is not my dream, it is simply the means to my dream. I've chosen trading as the means to obtain wealth, but it is because I love it. It may not be producing the results I desire yet, but I must keep pressing on and perfect my craft.

I'm reading the book "Think And Grow Rich" by Napolean Hill. The first few pages have already blew me away, invoking goosebumps upon goosebumps even as I was reading it on the train. If the rest of the book is going to be that good, I'm going to strongly recommend it as a MUST READ book for anyone who doesn't want to be a drifter in life. I'm not going to go into the content of what I've read, I just want to say that in life there are many timeless truths and wisdom that have been uncovered by great men of the past. We do not need to grope in darkness and try to figure our way in this maze where the destination is success. If there is something common that resonates in all successful people, shouldn't we strive to study and emulate it in order to hasten our journey to success?

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Awesome Forum Thread

Just want to share a forum post that is filled with so much gems of trading wisdom I got goosebumps reading it:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1432221#post1432221

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Wick Play + GBP/USD Analysis

My goodness I just came across something on the James16 group that blew my mind away. Pin bars (Aka hammers, upthrusts/springs, pinocchio bars) have been the bread and butter of my trading recently, and  it is very easy to simply interpret a pin bar with a lower tail as bullish and that with an upper tail as bearish. What if this is not necessarily true? There is a strategy known as the Wick Play on the James16 group which in short is about fading the pin bar. In other words, we long a bearish pin and short a bullish pin. Shocking? I must say the basis behind this is so good and it opened my eyes to a new level of price action analysis. I shouldn't go into the details of this strategy, but the key is to analyze the location of the pin bar.

I'm reminded that every single setup out there is about location. Where did your favorite setup form? Is your bullish engulfing just under resistance in a downtrend? I feel so thrilled to learn about the Wick Play because even though I'll not be trading it (This is definitely something only for the pros), it gives me confidence to hold on to my trades even if an opposing pin forms. So say I'm short and a bullish pin formed at a non support area, I do not need to freak out and close my trade immediately. Heck there is even a strategy to short that pin! Also, I am better able to differentiate between good pin bars and bad pin bars.

Here is (in my noob opinion) a potential candidate for the Wick Play:

GBP/USD Daily
At first glance it appears that there is a bullish pin bar. Already I see people screaming long on public forums. Take a closer look. Prices just broke down a mini double top. On the weekly chart GBP/USD is a huge bearish outside bar with no near strong support. Would you want to long this pin bar? I already know some experienced traders who're looking to short a retracement instead. To add perspective, lets look at the 4H chart.

GBP/USD 4H
The pin bar on the daily chart is simply a pullback to broken support turned resistance on the 4H chart!! Now indeed prices might go higher; it is approaching the uptrend line, at a big round number of 1.6, there is some Fib confluence etc, but is this a high probability setup? In my opinion definitely not! I used to go around trading setups blindly, these days I'm more careful as to where the setups occur and how the chart looks like on a higher time frame. It is all about location, location, location.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

A+ Setup On USD/ZAR

USD/ZAR Daily
This is in my opinion an A+ setup. Long tailed bearish pin at a significant support turned resistance level with sufficient space to move. These are what I'm trying to look for nowadays, setups which just jump at my face, which I don't need to squint and justify myself taking. There is one problem with this pair though, it is an exotic pair with a 80+ pips spread, hence rendering it untradable. =P