Wednesday, September 4, 2013

AUDUSD confluence with the AUD crosses





Just want to write a short post to describe a form of confluence that could aid an analysis. In this example, we can observe nice H1 zones across the various AUD pairs. This means that if price should retrace, there is a high chance they'll hit their respective zones around the same time, hence acting as a form of confluence for any AUD related trade.

At first glance one might wonder duh doesn't this always happen? Well it doesn't. Sometimes we could see AUDUSD rising strong and forming a nice Demand zone, but the rise could be due to Dollar weakness. In this case, It is likely that pairs such as EURUSD , GBPUSD, NZDUSD would also be rising and USDJPY could be dropping. What we have then is a muted reaction on the various cross pairs.

In this case we have clear zones formed across all the AUD crosses and even on AUDNZD (NZDUSD is highly correlated to AUDUSD, so for a strong zone to form here is pretty rare). This is a sign of clear AUDUSD strength which was a result of the positive morning AUD GDP news. The idea then is to pick the best looking AUD pair to trade. I've personally chozen AUDNZD as I think it has the nicest price structure and most space to move. We will not want to enter multiple trades on the various AUD pairs as that would result in excessive losses should all the trades fail.

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