Saturday, April 27, 2013

Price Action VS News

I suddenly had this idea of checking out some of the turns in a few pairs which I previously attributed to news and observing where on the charts the turns happened. The result was shocking. First of all you must understand the concept of demand/supply zones (check out ReadTheMarket or Sam Seiden).

EURGBP
EURGBP 4H
This was in fact a trade I took based on the bearish false breakout pin bar. I was up almost 1R in profit but I wanted to try for a bigger run and ended up getting stopped out at breakeven. At that point there was a Draghi speech and I blamed him for saying something that caused price to bounce back. In hindsight, price bounced because it hit a demand zone.

EURUSD
EURUSD Daily
Look at the two huge candles under the blue arrow. Prices first surged up but amazingly gave up all the gains the next day. Well, news justified it by saying that the ECB dropped hints of a EUR rate cut. Hmmm... is it just coincidence that prices dropped back down because it hit a supply zone?

NZDUSD
NZDUSD Weekly
This is a weekly chart. NZDUSD was roaring upwards, breaking out of many prior swing highs and looking bullish as can be. In fact the upward move looked almost vertical on a daily chart. Within two days it gave up all of the prior gains. Wow what the heck happened??!! Oh..... gold tanked big time, and because New Zealand is a huge exporter of gold, it was badly affected too... Again, is it coincidence that prices hit a supply zone on the weekly chart?

These are just three examples, there are many more. Doing an exercise like this convinces me that there is absolutely no need to follow news. In fact I know of so many professional traders who don't have a clue about upcoming news at all. Of course it is alright to know when the news events are and how each news will affect the respective currencies. As a trader, it doesn't hurt to have knowledge on that. However, one should never base trading decisions on news. After sitting in front of the screen the entire day for the past few months, I've realized that many market moves occur contrary to how it normally should based on the news. The media justifications will then come out later. Well, by the time the explanation is out, a news trader would have been caught on the wrong side.

I'm seeing so much potential in combining this knowledge with James16, I already have some ideas but it needs to be demoed first. In fact I'm experiencing an inertia to trade live because there is so much I do not know and I really want to spend my time deep diving into the material first. I'm officially totally convinced that price action is king.

2 comments:

  1. Totally agree with you and i like how u read the chart/market because i do the same way. Probably because i too learn from RTM, PIE thread and Sam Seiden XD. It's nice to find people who think alike. Been reading some of your posts. Keep it up. Where are you from? I'm from Malaysia. Hope we can be friends :)

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  2. Hi Farid nice to hear from you, can't believe that people are reading this 3 years old post on a no longer active blog! A lot has changed since then and I haven't been trading PA for more than a year as the prop firm I'm with doesn't trade that way. I plan to start trading PA again though and am in the process of figuring out a way to fit that into my daily routine. Oh and I'm from Singapore.

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