Monday, October 7, 2013

How To Save Time When Studying Trading Forums/Sites

I just came across this article and man do I agree with it. In fact the third kind - Honest Ninja Guru is growing rapidly and I've seen many such examples in the Singapore trading scene. The thing is, this isn't just limited to gurus selling courses, but also active posters on forums. My heart aches at the amount of time I've wasted trying to understand why certain traders take and manage their trades. Many of these people are very active on the forums, they post mostly winning trades and often go around correcting others. As a result they're highly hailed as expert traders, and due to their connections they're often highly vouched too.

Now recently I had a series of eye openers, which led me to a conclusion I will share about later. I'm so grateful for sites like AceGazette, where trade journals not just have to include the trades, but also the account statement and the reasons for the trade. It is through there that I realized how many of these traders are actually not even profitable. I've also seen statements of traders who multiply their accounts within a very short time only to over trade and blow up another one before long. Their equity curve is like a roller coaster and their win rate is low. There is one common theme: They mostly post winning trades after the fact, and their results are inconsistent. Why should I study such traders? Now I'm not trying to say they're out to deceive or have any ill intentions. But given the enormous and endless amount of trading resources and threads out there, shouldn't I spend my limited time studying the really good and consistent traders? So now here is my conclusion, only study traders and posts with the following attributes:

  1. Posting before the fact. This is very obvious, you know a good trader because he posts when he takes the trade and not after the trade has ended as a profitable one. 
  2. Able to explain his entries and exits. This is super important. Now if you're only interested in a signal service, you might not care about this, but if you really want to learn, the trader you're studying has to be able to explain his trading strategies coherently, and you must be able to observe from his trades that he does adhere to them consistently. This point alone eliminates many traders who only post their winning trades but are very evasive and unwilling to explain their entries/exits.
  3. (Optional) Positive and consistent account statement. This is optional because if points 1 and 2 are fulfilled, I don't really need to see their account statement to know if they're a successful and consistent trader. Nevertheless, an account statement is the best proof. 
There, I've grown wiser based on that criteria, and no longer waste time studying or listening to traders who sound very knowledgeable and are hindsight kings but still lack profitability. 

3 comments:

  1. Hi Myst1z,

    Similar to you i also have been seaking for proper supply demand trading. Readthe market, acegazzete, julexo, nothing seems to be very successful for me.

    This readthe market engulf thing looks like an eyewash. most of the time it doesn't work. Then julexo i think he show only winning trades. he without any reason take trades in my opinon. Looks like i am being cheated by these guys. I am now full time trader. Dont have any more account balance to follow these guys. Can you suggest me a trustworthy place for me to learn SD trade. What is your opinion on readthemarket.com


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  2. Hi Rishi!

    Thanks for your comment, and I'm really sorry to hear what you've experienced. Truth be told I also went through the same frustration and doubts. I actually wrote a post as a reply to you because there is so much to say, hope it helps and also hope that you manage to resolve your trading issues soon!

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  3. Hey Myst1z,

    I understand what you are saying. However, it is very difficult to find someone that posts the trade before it happens. I can understand on a HTF chart where there is significant time between the intervals, but on a lower time frame chart, there is significantly less time to react and think. And more likely than not, the trader would be focused on the optimal entry and exit. As a result, very few trades are likely to be posted in this category. Of course, a before and after chart can always help.

    I understand point 2 about traders explaining their entries and exits. Most guys/gals who fall in this category are competent traders and have nothing to gain from teaching you or wanting to "share" their system. They can already trade and more likely than not your $800 for purchasing their system would be covered in 2 or more trades. It sounds harsh. I know.

    The posting of an account statement is itself a merit. However, it also goes to show other flaws such as money management etc. Ever seen some exponential growth on some account, where the account is doubled in a short interval? Now break it down and look at the profit returned by each trade. Then look at the lot size traded. Finally, compare that risk to what a reasonable risk size for that account size should be. Another harsh reality. I can be even more blunt about it, but I'll stop here.

    Sam Seiden originally brought the concept of supply and demand to the trading world, well at least commercially that is. However, many other proponents have taken the base concept and twisted it a bit and are now marketing it around the globe. Hence the reason for so many strains of supply and demand trading.

    Like you, I've spent much time following these other groups around the internet. Wasting time to be precise, following these one hit wonders. Like you say, these people are highly vouched for, making newbies like myself think that they are the real deal, when in actually they are nothing more than epic failures. I have seen guys with in excess of 8 vouches fail to produce consistent results.

    However, with a bit of commonsense, one can filter out total scrap from real traders.

    Like yourself, I've done a bit of work on my own, taking what I know and developing it a bit further on my own. There are a lot of free tools around that help expedite the process, 1 such tool is MT4i that allows the replay of data so that you can gain "screen time" and experience. There are others on the market as well, but nothing beats free!

    Keep up the good work BTW, something I have to point out before I step on the publish tab....

    1.Compression and liquidity has been traded, long before Sam Seiden and the S/D craze was around. Of course, it was a different name.
    2.The 3 Drive to Supply (or Demand) actually has another name and is often traded a bit different in the futures markets.
    3. Both patterns above are accumulation or distribution patterns, depends on where they are in the charts.

    Take care and good trading.

    Any questions, feel free to ask. You know how to contact me


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