Friday, May 24, 2013

Missed Trade On EURGBP

EURGBP 1H
Just want to post a setup which I spotted but chickened out from. This post will hopefully drill the potency of the setup even deeper in my mind. Basically we had a false breakout + bearish divergence + compression + 3H pin. I've seen this combo a few times and it is very deadly, especially if the false breakout is into a supply/demand zone. As you can see when prices broke down it shot through very quickly to the origin of the compression. This is very typical because there is virtually no more demand/buy orders left to stop the down move as the pros have already removed all the demand on the way up. The fake breakout at the top was the start of it all, it was where the pros gunned the buy stops of the breakout bulls and the stop losses of the bears. This gave them the liquidity to go short.

Of course all this is easy to say in hindsight. I chickened out mainly because the fake breakout wasn't into a supply zone and there was one just slightly above. I was worried that price would want to hit that zone first before turning down. Also, price was compressing down on the 5 mins chart and I didn't want to take the risk of it going higher.

EURGBP 5min
Oh well I guess the higher time frame story trumps lower time frame observations. I don't regret passing on this trade, one of my mantra is to never take a trade if I'm having that doubtful/unsure feeling. I know that I still lack experience, my goal now is to gain as much experience as possible so that with time I'll be able to nail trades like this with confidence and ease.

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